arbitrary constant

A couple of very interesting papers have appeared recently linking economics and football. The first is from the World Bank whilst the second (.pdf) is from Goldman Sachs.

Here are a few interesting facts taken from these papers, which may or may not dampen England’s expectations of success over the next month.

England are ranked 10th in the FIFA world rankings for May 2006 behind teams you would expect (Brazil in 1st, Argentina in 9th) and teams you wouldn't (Czech Republic in 2nd, USA in 5th, Mexico in 4th) and ahead of two of the favourites for the World Cup — Italy (13th) and Germany (19th).

On the World Cup all-time table England are ranked in 5th place, behind the other favourites for the 2006 World Cup — Brazil, Germany, Italy and Argentina. This reflects England's World Cup record of

P50 W22 D13 L15 For 68 Against 45.

That represents a win success rate of 44% at 1.36 goals per game (compared to Brazil, say, who score 2.2 goals per game. Hungary has the best goals-per-game ratio at 2.7 goals per game). In defence, England concedes 0.9 goals per game. Again, this is in comparison to Brazil who concedes 0.94 goals per game. Encouragingly, Germany concedes 1.25 goals per game and of the teams that appear regularly in the World Cup (i.e. not Croatia, the Republic of Ireland or Wales) England concedes the least goals per game of any nation.

England's fair play record is well known, having been the fair play award at the 1990 and 1998 World Cups. England players have received yellow cards on 32 occasions and red cards on just two. One was David Beckham against Argentina in 1998 — answers on a postcard for the other. Assuming Wayne Rooney plays some part, let us all hope he manages to control his temperament and ensure he doesn't receive the fifth red card of his career.

England's opening game on Saturday is against Paraguay, against whom they recorded one of their biggest World Cup victories — 3–0 in 1986, with Gary Lineker netting a hat-trick. Another of England's biggest victories came against Denmark in 2002 — a feat they would look to repeat against other opposition from that part of Europe soon (though England haven't defeated Sweden in a competitive match since 1968).

Finally — and leading to the final — not all of Argentina, Germany or England can make it to the semi-finals. Goldman Sachs's prediction is that Brazil, Germany and Italy will be three of the four semi-finalists, with England beating Argentina for the fourth semi-final place. Whether that will be another affair decided by penalties is something that will be considered another time.

Filed in Sport